Investor brief
Counterfactual intelligence, built to be tested in public.
Great Bear is building the engine that stress-tests strategies before reality does — beginning with an authored football case, carrying the same contract into finance, and designing every future resolution to contribute to a Decision Graph.
The category
Counterfactual intelligence, in plain terms
Strategy stress testing and scenario analysis. A forecast tells you what is likely; a strategy has to survive what is plausible. The engine turns a plan into a Strategy Case, branches the futures that threaten it, shear-tests the assumptions, and compares which action holds up best within the declared case — trigger and downside attached.
The wedge
Football: a fast, public proving ground
Great Bear Football is the flagship prototype because tactical decisions are frequent and the chosen response becomes observable within days. Authored, clearly labelled cases make the interaction public without confidential club data; comparative claims still carry an explicit evidence tier. The coaching workspace is in development.
The second vertical
Finance: the same engine, sharper stakes
Great Bear Finance carries the identical loop into portfolio stress testing as a research prototype with a design-partner program. The measures change — CVaR tail loss, concentration, implementation cost — but the object is the same Strategy Case. Initial public work uses synthetic data. Any future permissioned-data work begins only after the applicable rights, privacy, security, and legal terms are established. No execution; not investment advice.
The moat
The Decision Graph compounds; scenario volume does not
Scenario generation is increasingly available. The intended defensible asset is a resolved Decision Graph: versioned records of state, action, prediction, observed outcome, provenance, and evidence tier. Trusted comparative resolutions require operating the loop and permission to retain the result; raw scenario volume does not provide that evidence.
Evidence discipline
Claims are gated mechanically
Public copy on this site passes a mechanical claim guardrail before it ships: no invented metrics, no partnership or advantage claims, provenance labels on every example, and a strict no-quantum-advantage rule on all Pilot Wave material. The same discipline grades the products: Decision Fidelity at resolution, or it does not count.
Current state
What exists today
The honest inventory, kept current:
- Publicthis site, the authored Football walkthrough, and the Labs projects — each labelled by provenance, audience, or maturity where applicable.
- In developmentthe editable Great Bear Football workspace, the Great Bear Finance upload flow, agent tools that read and write Strategy Cases, and the outcome-resolution system behind the Decision Graph.
- ResearchPilot Wave is the benchmark program; its methodology is public and benchmark artifacts are in preparation.
- Not claimedperformance numbers, customer counts, partnerships, or causal guarantees. Pilot Wave makes no quantum-advantage claim.
Request the full brief
The complete materials — founder, market, roadmap, and the current state of each prototype — are available on request.